The result of Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections has thrown up unpleasant yet interesting challenges at the Congress and Shiv Sena. Congress in particular is in a big dilemma whether to support the Sena in the Mayoral elections or abstain from voting. The possibility for it to vote against the Sena looks very remote. Congress has now the historic opportunity to keep the BJP at a bay and help the Sena hold on to the post of Mayor. However, in doing so, it runs the risk of being labelled as a party which has nothing to do with secularism and that it can brazenly compromise with its basic ideals as and when it is convenient to its electoral fortunes. It can ill afford to abstain in the mayoral election because the fledging party in Maharashtra is not expected to be suicidal and it certainly can’t risk being wiped out from the political map of Maharashtra in the event BJP is able to effect defections from it and cobble together a working majority.
For Shiv Sena, the euphoria of becoming the leading party in BMC is only non-existent and the celebration is guarded. BJP came tantalisingly close to it despite contesting in fewer seats than the Sena. BJP improved upon its 2012 tally handsomely and won a third seats more than it was actually offered to by the estranged ally before the alliance broke. It is now in a position to wrest control of BMC from the Sena with the aid of some smaller parties like NCP and also if the Congress decides to abstain from voting. These are very likely propositions. Sena to get Congress support has to severe its ties with its oldest ally BJP and has a lot of explaining to do in the coming months. Sena under Uddhab Thakrey has been viewed as highly mercurial and its mass appeal as the principal regional party in the state is declining at a very faster rate.
The BJP couldn’t have asked for a better turn of events. From 31 seats in the last BMC, it made a three-fold rise in its seats in this BMC election. Besides, it has emerged as the single largest party in 8 out of 10 municipal bodies where it is in a position to rule. The Zilla Parishad and Samiti elections have also given it status of the largest party in the state. In the event of a fresh election to the Assembly, it is very likely that other parties will stare at decimation. A Congress-Shiv Sena alliance at the electoral hustings may be a statistician’s delight but unless the parties lack ability to transfer their votes, it will be an electoral debacle for them.
Pramod Kumar Sahu
OFS